Romanian industrial production grew by 17.5% a year earlier – Table BUCHAREST (Romania), May 10 (Reuters) – The World Bank said on Thursday it had raised Romania’s economic growth forecast for 2018 to 5.1 percent from 4.4 percent in January.
“The economy is expected to continue to grow beyond its potential in 2018. GDP is expected to grow by around 1.1% in 2018, driven by the financial crisis and supported by the EU,” the World Bank said in a statement. said Central Asia.
Romania’s 2018 state budget is based on estimates of 6.1 percent economic growth.
In 2019, the bank’s GDP in Romania will grow by 4.5 percent.
Romanian industrial production The report emphasizes that the fiscal measures adopted in 2013 have put pressure on the consolidated general government deficit. In the absence of corrective measures, the revenue deficit is projected at 3.3% of GDP in 2018, which would put Romania on the path to returning to the EU’s excessive deficit approach.
The increase in the general government deficit will increase the government debt from 44.5% of GDP in 2012 to 4.8% by the end of 2012. However, public debt remains one of the lowest in the EU.
Continued growth in consumption is also expected to increase the current account deficit to 4.3 per cent in 2018.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) warned Romania on Wednesday of the risk of exceeding the EU’s 3% budget deficit.
The World Bank looks at Romania’s average annual inflation rate of 3.7% in 2011 and 3.2% in 2015. Inflation peaked at around 5% in mid-2018, reflecting growing domestic demand and the key effects of tax cuts.
The biggest risks to economic growth in 2018 are economic pressures and excess domestic demand, which will limit space in policymakers ’strategies for 2018 and beyond.
“The current account deficit is widening and inflationary pressures continue. This development has pushed the Romanian economy externally. The authorities may need to take corrective measures to keep the deficit below 3% of GDP in 2018 with a good fiscal adjustment,” the bank said.
The report stated that expanded private spending should be supported by expanding fiscal policies and that continued real wage growth should be supported in part by increases in minimum wages, increased real incomes and a further decline in poverty, the report said.
The global poverty rate is expected to fall to 22.6 percent in 2018, 21.7 percent in 2019, and 20.9 percent in 2020.
Below are the World Bank’s forecasts for Romania for 2018 and 2019 (annual percentage change)